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ASML Shares Tumble. Time to Run for the Hills or Buy the Dip?

July 21, 2025
06:30 AM
5 min read
AI Enhanced
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S of ASML Holding (ASML -1. Additionally, 09%) sank after the company warned it was uncertain its growth outlook for 2026, given current economic conditions. The stock has fallen 30%...

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investment

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Published

July 21, 2025

06:30 AM

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S of ASML Holding (ASML -1

Additionally, 09%) sank after the company warned it was uncertain its growth outlook for 2026, given current economic conditions

The stock has fallen 30% over the past year, as of this writing

Additionally, For those unfamiliar with ASML, the Dutch company is a semiconductor equipment manufacturer that makes the devices that foundries, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, use to make chips

The data indicates that has a virtual monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, which is the manufacturing cess used create advanced chips, such as Nvidia's graphics cessing units (GPUs), amid market uncertainty

Additionally, The company has also developed a new nology called a high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography system, or High NA EUV, to help shrink nodes

Nodes represent the size of the transistors used on a chip, and foundries and chipmakers are continually looking to shrink node sizes, as that makes the chips more powerful and energy-efficient

On the other hand, However, the cost of ASML's new High NA EUV machines is around $400 million each, which has led customers to push back

An uncertain 2026 outlook ASML's Q2 results were actually quite strong

Furthermore, Revenue for the quarter jumped 23% to 7. 7 billion euros ($9 billion) and came in at the high end of the company's guidance range of 7 (an important development)

Moreover, 2 billion to 7. 7 billion euros ($8, amid market uncertainty

Nevertheless, 4 billion to $9 billion) (something worth watching)

Its equipment sales rose nearly 18% year over year to 5. 6 billion euros ($6, considering recent developments. 5 billion), while its service revenue soared 42% to 2. 1 billion euros ($2, in this volatile climate

Furthermore, 5 billion) (remarkable data)

During the quarter, the company sold 67 new lithography systems and nine used systems compared to 89 new and 11 used systems in the year-ago quarter

However, 48% of its sales came from higher-priced EUV nology versus only 31% a year ago, as it had a large percentage of sales to China a year ago

Additionally, Moreover, The company said that growth is being driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and that more customers are shifting toward EUV nology (which is quite significant), in today's financial world

Moreover, The evidence shows sees its customers looking to increase their EUV capacity by 30% this year

Overall, it is looking for a 15% increase in revenue in 2025, with a sustained imvement of its service in the second half (remarkable data)

It noted that the direct and the indirect impact of tariffs remains uncertain, and that it's navigating the situation the best it can

Additionally, At the same time, Its net bookings, which can be a good indicator of future revenue growth, were solid, coming in at 5. 5 billion euros ($6. 4 billion), given current economic conditions

That was well ahead of the 4, given the current landscape. 2 billion euros ($4. 9 billion) in net bookings that analysts were expecting

However, its Q3 guidance calling for revenue of between 7

Furthermore, 4 billion euros ($8 (this bears monitoring)

At the same time, 6 billion) and 7. 9 billion euros ($9

Moreover, 2 billion) was below the analyst consensus of 8, in this volatile climate

Additionally, 3 billion euros ($9

Additionally, 7 billion)

Looking toward 2026, the company continues to expect strong demand coming from AI

However, given the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment -- along with some companies dealing with company-specific issues that could impact the timing of their capital expenditure (capex) -- it is un what its growth next year might look

However, Image source: Getty Images, in today's market environment

Should investors buy the dip (noteworthy indeed)

While ASML's Q2 results were strong, investors were ly disappointed with the company's ary 2026

To be fair, the semiconductor equipment is notoriously lumpy (an important development)

A few large foundries make up the bulk of its EUV, while Chinese companies had been rushing to get their lower-end equipment on fears it too would be banned in the country

However, Meanwhile, Intel and Samsung, two of the world's largest foundries, have had their of struggles, which could be leading to some of the uncertainty with regard to next year

That said, I view the sell-off in ASML s as a buying opportunity

The company basically has a 100% market when it comes to the EUV nology that is needed to make advanced chips

Moreover, And with demand for advanced chips continuing to grow, foundries are going to need EUV machines to make them, in today's market environment

Meanwhile, while leading foundry TSMC has balked at the high price of ASML's new High NA EUV machines, it cannot afford to delay their use indefinitely, as the cost of falling behind nologically would be much worse

Moreover, Ing the market sell-off, ASML s trade at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 27x based on 2025 analyst estimates, considering recent developments

Furthermore, With nearly no competition for EUV lithography and growing demand for advanced chips, this is a stock you'd want to own at these levels for the long term

Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned

At the same time, The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML, Intel, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, in this volatile climate

The Motley Fool recommends the ing options: short August 2025 $24 calls on Intel

What the data shows is Motley Fool has a disclosure policy (noteworthy indeed).