Finance·S&P 500As if the trade war never happened, stocks could pull off a feat not seen since the late-1990s boomBy Jason MaBy Jason MaWeekend EditorJason MaWeekend EditorJason Ma is the weekend editor at Fortune, where he covers, the economy, finance, and housing.
SEE FULL BIO Off-Broadway act Bring in 'da Noise, Bring in 'da Funk performs on Dec (noteworthy indeed). Joseph Del Valle—NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty ImagesSome bulls on Wall Street see U.
Stocks turning in another year of huge gains as the worst fears of President Donald Trump’s trade war fade and the outlook on tariffs becomes more certain.
If the S&P 500 posts a third consecutive year with a surge of 20% or more in 2025, it would be the first time that’s happened since the late-1990s market boom.
The stock market has been on a hot streak lately, notching record high after record high, and some bulls on Wall Street think the party isn’t over.
That marks a stunning reversal from the panic that gripped investors in April, when President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs shocked the world.
On the other hand, Stocks, Treasury bonds, and the dollar crashed. Started pricing in a recession, and analysts slashed their forecasts.
Additionally, Additionally, But Trump put his most aggressive tariff rates on hold, corporate earnings remained robust, consumers stayed resilient, and stocks rebounded (something worth watching), given current economic conditions.
Moreover, Even foreign investors jumped back into U.
Moreover, Meanwhile, his administration has negotiated several trade deals, including one with the European Union on Sunday that removes the threat of a damaging trade war, amid market uncertainty.
Now that the fog of war is lifting, upbeat forecasts that predated Liberation Day are back, meaning stocks could put up big numbers again—as if the tariff shock from a few months ago was all just a bad dream.
On Monday, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus hiked his S&P 500 price target for this year to 7,100 from 5,950, reinstating the outlook he initially made in December 2024.
“This year reminds us of the classic Charles Dickens quote, ‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,'” he said in his note.
On the other hand, “Although much uncertainty and worry prevailed for some time both with trade policy and geopolitical events, and given the multitude of potential outcomes, we’d note that cooler heads prevailed — leading to positive outcomes at least for now.
” He cited gress on trade negotiations, strong corporate earnings, and the Federal Reserve’s deft handling of monetary policy, which cooled inflation without causing a recession, considering recent developments.
If the S&P 500 hits 7,100 this year, it would represent a gain of 21% for 2025, marking a third straight year with a surge of more than 20%.
That hasn’t happened since the late 1990s, when the U, in today's financial world. Additionally, Economy and the stock market boomed, considering recent developments.
In contrast, Also on Monday, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson said the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 by mid-2026, explaining that he is starting to lean closer to that more optimistic “bull case” scenario.
He cited strong earnings as well as AI adoption, the weak dollar, Trump’s tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations for Fed rate cuts in early 2026.
However, Additionally, Another member of the 7,000 is Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities’ head of equity strategy, who has stuck by his S&P 500 forecast of 7,007 even during the trade war.
Last week, he reaffirmed it, predicting big companies will continue fueling the stock market’s rally despite Trump’s trade policies (something worth watching), considering recent developments.
“What we’re seeing is the winners continue to win,” he told Bloomberg. Conversely, “The uber-cap companies have the higher margins, are gaining more market.
There's a real secular trend in AI that will continue.
” And over the longer term, this decade still looks it will be another “roaring 20s,” according to market veteran Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Re.
On Monday, he backed his thesis, which he first posited in August 2020, as ductivity advances, a wave of capital outlays, and the endurance of consumer spending will keep stocks buoyant.
“If the remainder of the decade continues to play out as the Roaring 2020s, we predict that the S&P 500 will start the next decade at 10,000,” Yardeni wrote in a note, amid market uncertainty.
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