AI·Eye on AIAs AI bubble warnings mount, a 23-year-old’s $1.5 billion hedge fund shows how phecy turns into fitsBy Sharon GoldmanBy Sharon GoldmanAI ReporterSharon GoldmanAI ReporterSharon Goldman is an AI reporter at Fortune and co- Eye on AI, Fortune’s flagship AI .
She has written digital and enterprise for over a decade.SEE FULL BIO Leopold Aschenbrenner is a former OpenAI reer who published a viral manifesto on the future of AI, and turned that document into an investment thesis for a hedge fund that now has more than $1.5 billion under management.Josh Edelson courtesy of Situational AwarenessWelcome to Eye on AI, with AI reporter Sharon Goldman.
In this edition…the rise of Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 23-year-old AI reer turned hedge fund manager…the IMF and the Bank of England both warn of the dangers of a financial bubble around AI…and figures that show enterprise AI adoption is growing significantly.
The chorus of warnings an AI bubble is growing louder. Yesterday, the IMF and the Bank of England became the to warn that global could face trouble if investor enthusiasm for AI takes a dive.
Yet in Silicon Valley and beyond, that enthusiasm shows no sign of slowing. Investors aren’t just backing companies anymore.
They’re betting that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—AI systems as capable as, or more capable than, humans—is right around the corner, with enormous rewards for those who get in early.
Few stories capture that better than the rise of 23-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI reer who became famous in AI circles for penning a monograph the implications of AGI, and then launched a hedge fund based largely on that monograph that now manages more than $1.5 billion.
I was so fascinated by Aschenbrenner that I spent the past few weeks digging into his story.
The result is a Fortune file based on interviews with more than a dozen of his friends, former colleagues, and acquaintances, as well as investors and Silicon Valley insiders.
(Aschenbrenner declined to speak to me.)Who is Leopold Aschenbrenner?
As I write in the story:A Columbia valedictorian at age 19, [Aschenbrenner] spent time at the philanthropy arm of Sam Bankman-Fried’s now-bankrupt FTX cryptocurrency exchange before a controversial year at OpenAI, where he was ultimately fired.
Then, just two months after being booted from the most influential company in AI, he penned an AI manifesto that went viral — even earning praise from Ivanka Trump on social media — and used it as a launching pad for a hedge fund that now manages more than $1.5 billion.
That’s modest by hedge-fund standards but remarkable for someone barely out of college.
Just four years after graduating, Aschenbrenner is holding private discussions with CEOs, investors, and policymakers who treat him as a kind of phet of the AI age.
It’s an astonishing ascent — one that has many asking not just how this German-born early-career AI reer pulled it off, but whether the hype surrounding him matches the reality.
To some, Aschenbrenner is a rare genius who saw the moment — the coming of human AGI, China’s accelerating AI race, and the vast fortunes awaiting those who move first — more ly than anyone else.
To others, including several former OpenAI colleagues, he’s a lucky novice with no finance track record, repackaging hype into a hedge-fund pitch.
Reporting the story, what struck me most is how belief itself has become a form of capital — how people are literally in a worldview where AI is heading.
That belief translates into real money: billions flowing into chips, data centers, and hedge funds built not just on financial models, but on the conviction that AGI is not only inevitable — but imminent.
Whether or not investors Aschenbrenner are fueling the bubble is beside the point.
His rise shows how belief — in AGI, its timing, its inevitability — has become one of the most powerful forces in the AI economy.
Companies OpenAI and Anthropic are making their own versions of the same bet — that AGI is coming soon, and that belief is worth billions.
Aschenbrenner’s fund is essentially the financial-market expression of that faith — one investor in the fund told Fortune that Leopold said that “AGI was going to be so impactful to the global economy that the only way to fully capitalize on it was to express investment ideas in the most liquid in the world.” I’ll admit, the idea of “expressing” a belief through a hedge fund was new to me as a reporter more used to model weights than portfolio weightings.
But it did help me make sense of some of the bubbly fizz coursing through the AI world right now — and why so many are starting to worry it could all burst. Read the here.
With that, here’s more AI news.
Sharon Goldmansharon.goldman@fortune.com@sharongoldmanFORTUNE ON AIAI isn’t in a bubble—the cash (and the hype) are real, these analysts say – by Jim EdwardsHow leaders can survive a ‘phenomenal’ AI bubble – by Alyson ShontellSection 230 tected social media companies from legal responsibility for misinformation.
AI chatbots could be to change that – by Beatrice NolanAI IN THE NEWSOpenAI and Anthropic are considering using investor funds to settle potential claims from multibillion-dollar lawsuits.
According to the Financial Times, OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring whether they might use investor funds to help cover potential liabilities from a wave of multibillion-dollar lawsuits, as traditional insurers hesitate to offer full tection against AI-related risks.
OpenAI reportedly worked with insurance broker Aon to secure up to $300 million in coverage for emerging AI risks, though the true figure may be lower—and in any case, far short of the potential damages.
Insurance executives told the FT that the industry lacks the capacity to handle the kind of systemic, large-scale losses AI models could trigger, reflecting the sector’s broader unease underwriting the unprecedented risks posed by generative AI viders.
IMF and BoE warn AI boom risks ‘abrupt’ stock market correction.
The Financial Times also reported that both the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England have warned that global stock could face a sudden correction as the artificial intelligence boom drives valuations to levels reminiscent of the dotcom bubble.
IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva cautioned that bullish sentiment AI’s ductivity potential could “turn abruptly,” threatening global growth—particularly in economies.
The BoE’s Financial Policy Committee similarly noted that U.S.
stock valuations are apaching those seen at the height of the 2000 crash, pointing to an “increased risk of a sharp market correction.” Still, figures such as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly argued that today’s AI surge differs from the dotcom era, fueled by wealthier giants and ductive investment rather than speculation.
Why America builds AI girlfriends and China makes AI boyfriends. I thought this was a fascinating piece in a great Substack , written by multiple contributors, called ChinaTalk.
In the article, an Oxford reer named Zilan Qian explores why America’s AI “companions” tend to be girlfriends while China’s are boyfriends—and what that says both societies. The U.S.
market, dominated by apps catering to young men, reflects a mix of manosphere culture, loneliness, and the monetization of sexualized AI fantasy.
In contrast, China’s booming “AI boyfriend” industry largely targets urban women amid falling marriage rates and government anxiety over birth declines.
Qian argues that these gendered trends reveal how culture, regulation, and demographics shape not just who builds AI—but what kinds of emotional worlds we build with it. AI CALENDAROct.
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