America's Newest Space IPO Was a Smashing Success

Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good

As the old saying goes, "Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than to be good. " Take investors in the Voyager nologies (VOYG -14. 26%) initial public offering (IPO), for example

Once upon a time, space stocks were a rarity

So much so that Sir Richard Branson was able to IPO Virgin Galactic as the only real way for investors to "dabble a little bit in a spaceship company, own a little bit of a spaceship company" -- and watch the stock price zoom into orbit

Virgin's success soon inspired a wave of imitators -- special-purpose acquisition companies (SPAC) that dutifully zoomed when first created, only to crater thereafter, frightening many investors away from the idea of in space stocks for years

That all changed, however, when President Donald Trump won his second term of office, mising to bring Elon Musk into government and invest heavily in space exploration

Image source: Getty Images

It was at this pitious moment in time that Voyager nologies decided it, too, would go public

Wooing investors with mises to build an international coalition of companies and create a new, privately owned space station to replace the International Space Station (ISS), Voyager stock debuted to widespread acclaim on June 11

If you got in anywhere near the IPO price, you were lucky indeed

Momentum only lasts so long But what if you were not among those lucky few who got in at the IPO price

Well, in that case, I'd say you're bably feeling a bit less fortunate

The first 10 trading days since Voyager's IPO have not been kind to momentum investors

Seeking a rocket ride "to the moon," they instead have found themselves on an elevator slowly descending to Earth

Again, a nice fit if you were lucky enough to get in on the ground floor

But a significant loss if you didn't

But should you even want to

Let's run a few numbers and see if an answer arises

The other half ($78 million) comes from "defense and national security" ducts, including "artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled edge computing platforms and missile pulsion modules. " Neither half of Voyager is currently fitable according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), however

Indeed, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Voyager reported $74 million in net losses last year -- losing $0. 50 for every $1 in ducts it sold

The upshot for would-be Voyager stock investors With no Wall Street analysts yet publishing earnings forecasts for Voyager, it's hard for an investor to know when Voyager might eventually turn fitable

But here's my two cents: With Voyager currently working full tilt to build the Starlab space station, management forecasting that the station will cost "apximately $2. 8 billion to $3. 3 billion" to build, and Voyager hoping to launch the station aboard a SpaceX Starship rocket (which hasn't yet been certified for flight) in 2029, the absolute earliest anyone should expect to see Voyager turn a fit is 2029

Most ly, it will take some time after the first launch before Starlab begins raking in enough revenue to help Voyager turn a fit

Most definitely, the company won't be able to get anywhere near fitability before Starlab is launched

Whether the situation then imves after the station is built is anyone's guess

Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab

The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab and S&P Global

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