Investment
The Motley Fool

1 Reason Tesla Investors Should Actually Thank Canada

July 19, 2025
06:05 AM
4 min read
AI Enhanced
investmentfinancialautomotivetechnologymarket cyclesseasonal analysispolicy

Key Takeaways

Market analysis reveals Interestingly, If you glanced toward America's neighbor to the north, you might see tension so thick you could cut it with a knife. Canada isn't thrilled with...

Article Overview

Quick insights and key information

Reading Time

4 min read

Estimated completion

Category

investment

Article classification

Published

July 19, 2025

06:05 AM

Source

The Motley Fool

Original publisher

Key Topics
investmentfinancialautomotivetechnologymarket cyclesseasonal analysispolicy

Market analysis reveals Interestingly, If you glanced toward America's neighbor to the north, you might see tension so thick you could cut it with a knife

Canada isn't thrilled with U (remarkable data)

Trade policy (something worth watching)

President Donald Trump isn't happy with Canada

Some in Canada are equally unhappy with Trump's former partner Elon Musk and his company Tesla (TSLA 3. 13%) after its rush to file for expiring incentives raised eyebrows, but was later found to be legit

So Canada, Musk/Tesla have a rocky relationship

But Canada might end up lining Tesla's figurative pockets, given the current landscape

However, Tesla and its investors have had to deal with scrutiny regarding how the company generates revenue and fits from selling zero-emissions credits since day one

People occasionally joked that Tesla was better at selling emissions credits than building cars, but since those credits generated 40% of the company's fits in 2024, it's no laughing matter

Moreover, Companies get credits for selling zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs), and are allowed to sell credits over the max they are required to have to other companies

Now the narrative for Tesla is going a step further with the most unusual dance partner: Canada

The Canadian government put regulations in place stating that zero-emissions vehicles must comprise 20%, 60%, and 100% of light-duty vehicle sales by 2026, 2030, and 2035, respectively

Additionally, For context, ZEV market was 9. 7% of new vehicles registered in Canada during the first quarter

It's a lot to ask that that percentage double by 2026, and it seems unly to be achieved at a time when EV sales have yet to take off with the speed once anticipated, and with uncertain trade policies and tariffs in North America with its extensive and complicated automotive distribution across Canada, Mexico, and the United States

However, A Tesla Cybertruck

Image source: Tesla, in today's market environment

At the same time, Buying credits In Canada, automakers will face penalties of $20,000 per vehicle for falling short of regulatory targets (which is quite significant)

However, What's an automaker to do if it knows with near certainty that it'll miss Canada's targets, in today's financial world

One option is to simply buy some of Tesla's pile of credits, as the pure EV maker doesn't have to cover a line of its own gasoline-powered vehicles facing penalties

Tesla reported $2. 8 billion in revenue last year from the sale of credits

These zero-emissions credits are also un most sales in the automotive industry in that they are considered essentially pure fit, aiding Tesla's margins

Furthermore, Tesla is already selling limited numbers of credits in British Columbia and Quebec, and already selling five times as many as General Motors and Hyundai (the other two auto sellers of credits) combined, according to Automotive News, in today's market environment

What the data shows is publication reported Tesla sold nearly 32,000 credits in Quebec from 2020-2024

But if automakers see they'll fall short of targets, and policy remains determined to punish those that miss targets, Tesla could be a major beneficiary of a surge in emissions credits purchases, considering recent developments

However, Nevertheless, What it all means This may be one of the few positives for Tesla investors to grab onto right now

The fact that it could be Canada boosting Tesla's top and bottom lines after multiple punches thrown across the border is unexpected

Conversely, But any boost in demand for Tesla's pile of highly valuable zero-emissions credits is great news as the company attempts to rebound from a 13 (fascinating analysis). 5% drop in global vehicle deries during the second quarter, compared to the prior year (something worth watching)

However, while this is a little bit of good news for investors, it doesn't fundamentally change Tesla's investment thesis

Right now, investors might be wise to wait until the upcoming November holder meeting to better understand the company's direction, before starting a new position in the EV maker

Daniel Miller has positions in General Motors

Moreover, The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla, given current economic conditions

Conversely, The Motley Fool recommends General Motors

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.